Gulf states struggle to survive: Diplomatic struggles in the Israel-Iran conflict

Gulf states struggle to survive: Diplomatic struggles in the Israel-Iran conflict

As Israel and Iran enter their fourth day of fierce fighting, Gulf Arab states are stepping up efforts to contain the disastrous consequences of the war's spillover. Oman, Qatar and other countries are actively acting as mediators, seeking to promote a ceasefire and restart the stalled nuclear talks between Iran and the United States.

Iran's attitude changes: Willing to restart nuclear talks, but only on the condition of ceasefire

According to sources, Iran has privately expressed its willingness to return to the nuclear negotiation table, but the prerequisite is that Israel must first stop its military strikes on its key targets. "We never leave the negotiation table, but we will never negotiate when we are under attack," a senior Iranian official told the mediator.

This stance suggests that Iran’s current response is more of “strategic restraint” than all-out confrontation — but if the situation escalates further, Tehran could respond with something more destructive, including advancing its nuclear program.

Fear and the passive role of the Gulf States

Although Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries have worked hard over the years to build a foreign and security policy independent of the United States and Israel and to establish "limited mutual trust" with Iran, these countries now find themselves at the center of a regional crisis that they can hardly control.

People's anxiety has been reflected in real life: supermarket shelves are empty, and social media is full of discussions about the location of air-raid shelters. Badr Saif, a professor at Kuwait University, said bluntly: "This is the situation we have feared the most for many years, and now it has become a reality."

The Qatari government even issued a statement through the X platform in an attempt to reassure the public, saying that the level of air radiation was "within the normal range." But this reassurance is in stark contrast to the public's uneasiness.

Trump's Ambiguous Attitude and Possible US Military Intervention

During the G7 summit, President Trump said he had received a message from Iran seeking peace, but did not make a clear statement on whether he would pressure Israel to cease fire. He only said strongly on Truth Social: "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons!" and called on the citizens of Tehran to "evacuate immediately", which caused more anxiety than stability.

Although Trump has not promised military intervention, the United States has dispatched a fleet of refueling aircraft and an aircraft carrier to the Middle East, apparently in preparation for a "full response if necessary."

Gulf countries’ concerns: Is a full-scale war in the region inevitable?

Experts warn that if the conflict escalates further, Iran may take "extreme responses" such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz and attacking US bases, dragging the entire Persian Gulf region into the war. At the same time, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also closely watching whether Iran will expand its attacks to non-Israeli targets.

Political scientist Abdullah pointed out: "Israel is becoming more and more bold in its attacks, which will only make the region more chaotic in the short term." He reminded the outside world not to fantasize that the Iranian regime will collapse quickly, "This is just wishful thinking."

Can the Gulf region truly “stay out of it”?

At present, it seems that Saudi Arabia and Iran have reopened the channels of communication and promised not to use force against each other. But as Professor Saif said, "This situation is no longer determined by small and medium-sized countries, but by the life and death decisions of regional giants."

If Iran believes that the survival of its regime is threatened, will it still exercise restraint? If Israel continues to expand its strikes, will the Gulf countries still remain neutral?

Epilogue: “Everybody’s on the phone” trying to save the peace – but the real question is whether anyone will answer.