Iran-Israel conflict escalates, concerns about "World War III"

Iran-Israel conflict escalates, concerns about "World War III"

In June 2025, a military confrontation that could change the Middle East broke out: Israel launched an air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, and Iran immediately retaliated with missile attacks, drone swarm strikes, and even the first use of cluster warheads , which attracted great attention from the world.
After the conflict entered its eighth day, some observers and the media began to worry: Is World War III about to break out?

We understand the rationality of this concern, but from the perspective of strategic landscape, international relations, and historical experience , we believe that the world does not currently have the conditions for a Third World War to break out .

⚔️ 1. “Although the war has begun, it has not yet come to an all-out war” - the nature of the current conflict

The current conflict between Iran and Israel has the following characteristics:

Even if the tactical intensity escalates, it is still within the scope of **"local war + high-intensity strikes"** rather than the scope of global war.

🌐 2. "Global powers maintain rational restraint" - the attitude of major powers is the key variable

What can really trigger a world war is the direct military involvement of major powers. Let's take a look at the performance of major countries in this incident:

USA:

• clearly reaffirmed its commitment to Israel’s security;

• But the military did not send troops to participate, nor did it promote a regional ground war;

• President Biden said: "I don't want to see the Middle East get out of control again."

Russia:

• Criticize Israel's attacks on moral grounds;

• But no substantial military support was provided to Iran;

• Publicly called on both sides to "ease tensions through regional dialogue."

 China:

• Strongly call for an immediate ceasefire, mediated through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization framework;

• Promote a ceasefire draft in the UN Security Council;

• "Exercise restraint" on military intervention.

✅Conclusion : All major powers did not choose to expand the conflict, but tried to "cool down rather than ignite it."

🔍 3. “The international system still has checks and balances” - the response of the United Nations and the global market

☑️ The United Nations responded quickly

• The Security Council held an emergency meeting, and the five permanent members all supported the ceasefire motion;

• UN Secretary-General Guterres said: "The world is burning and we should not add more fuel to the fire."

☑️ Financial and energy markets self-regulate

• Although oil prices have risen sharply, OPEC+ countries have quickly pledged to increase production;

• The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have made intervention plans for the risk of energy shocks;

• Stock markets around the world stabilized after a brief decline, showing that the global system has not yet collapsed.

☑️ Geo-balancing mechanism is still in effect

• Gulf countries such as Qatar and the UAE play a mediating role;

• Türkiye and Oman proposed restoring diplomatic channels;

• The Red Cross and several international NGOs quickly launched refugee and humanitarian aid mechanisms.

🔁 4. "The evolution of war can be traced, and world wars did not break out suddenly"

The two world wars in history have common characteristics:

🧠 **History tells us that a real world war will not break out in an instant because of a regional conflict, but is the result of long-term accumulation and loss of control. **Although Iran and Israel are currently dangerous, the international community as a whole is still rationally regulating.

🕊️ 5. War is a disaster, and peace is mankind’s greatest asset

Although we do not believe that World War III will break out in this round of conflict, this war has already caused:

• Hundreds of civilians died;

• Hundreds of thousands of people in the Middle East have been displaced;

• The global energy, logistics and humanitarian situations have deteriorated;

• The media is full of fear and anxiety.

💬In a word: The cost of war always far exceeds its apparent "victory".

✍️ Summary:

Not every conflict will lead to a world war, but every war deprives us of the opportunity to have peace.

This conflict between Iran and Israel reminds us that peace cannot be taken for granted; it requires the joint protection of institutions, diplomacy, restraint and humanity and rationality.

Let us jointly call for: stop the war and return to the negotiation table.
Let reason prevail over hatred and let peace once again become the main theme of human civilization.